Part 3: Bridging the Gap — Germany’s Path Forward in European Defence Policy

Welcome to the final instalment of our three-part series on Germany’s evolving defence strategy with Dr. Timo Graf. In our previous newsletters, we explored the surprising shifts in German attitudes toward military engagement and the complex reality behind “Principled Solidarity” within NATO.

In this concluding piece, we examine what comes next for German defence policy and the critical factors that will shape its implementation. Dr. Graf’s research reveals a fundamental disconnect between political elites and public understanding that must be addressed for Germany to effectively navigate this new security landscape—particularly in light of Donald Trump’s recent election and the potential reshaping of transatlantic relations.

Please note that this conversation took place in November 2024, and some aspects may have changed due to recent geopolitical shifts.

As we conclude this series, we invite you to consider: Is Germany prepared to bridge the gap between political ambition and public understanding to assume its rightful place in European security architecture?

Yours,
Uwe, Jack and Jannic

The Disconnect: Political Elites vs. Public Understanding

At the heart of Germany’s defence challenge lies a troubling reality: a profound disconnect between political decision-makers and the general public. Dr. Graf’s research highlights that despite increased media coverage of the war in Ukraine, public awareness of specific Bundeswehr missions remains remarkably low (Fig. 1). This knowledge gap creates a vacuum that undermines informed debate and leaves citizens vulnerable to disinformation, particularly from actors like Russia.

The public remains largely unaware of the missions of the Bundeswehr, particularly those related to NATO. This lack of awareness directly impacts public engagement and support for both the military itself and the idea of serving in it.

This disconnect is particularly problematic as Germany attempts to navigate the implications of the Zeitenwende. While Chancellor Scholz’s speech marked a rhetorical turning point, many Germans perceive limited concrete outcomes from this declared policy shift. So what does this perception gap mean for Germany’s security future? The challenge now lies in translating political rhetoric into tangible changes that the public can both understand and support.

Reassessing Alliance Dependencies: A Delicate Balance

Overarching pragmatism characterises recent public perception of the Bundeswehr and its standing. Given the recent election of Donald Trump and the likely waning support for Ukraine, understanding how German armed forces should operate and define their mission has become increasingly urgent.

Dr. Graf’s findings reveal a striking paradox in German strategic thinking. While support for NATO remains high, there is a clear preference for operating within multilateral frameworks rather than taking unilateral action. In other words, the German public remains deeply sceptical about their country assuming a military leadership role, whether within the European Union or NATO.

This hesitancy reflects Germany’s unique historical experience and the resulting aversion to assertive military posturing. However, it also reveals a troubling dependency on external leadership—particularly from the United States—on security matters. This dependency creates strategic vulnerabilities in an era of shifting transatlantic relations.

The German public does not trust the country to be a military leader. They tend to look for guidance from other countries, particularly the US, on military matters. Public opinion is highly divided as only 33% agree with combat missions of the Bundeswehr—demonstrating a lack of confidence in their own military leadership (Fig. 2). This reliance raises serious concerns about the potential impact of fluctuating trust in the US, especially given recent political shifts in American leadership.

The recent election of Donald Trump, with his well-documented pressure on NATO allies to increase defence spending and scepticism about unconditional support for Ukraine, further complicates this dynamic. Germany now faces the challenge of recalibrating its approach to collective security whilst maintaining its commitment to multilateralism.

Building a Sustainable Framework: Three Essential Pillars

As Germany stands at a critical juncture in its defence policy, it must construct a framework that aligns public sentiment with strategic imperatives. The challenge is not just about increasing defence budgets or strengthening alliances—it is about fostering a long-term vision that resonates with both policymakers and the public.

While the Zeitenwende speech set ambitious expectations, tangible outcomes have remained limited in the public eye. To achieve meaningful progress, Dr. Graf’s research highlights three fundamental pillars that must guide Germany’s future approach to security:

1. Communicating the Need for Defence: The knowledge gap between policymakers and the public represents perhaps the most immediate challenge to effective defence policy. Addressing this requires transparent and accessible communication about the complexities of security policy, the specific roles and missions of the Bundeswehr, and the evolving threat landscape.

   
   Early education about these issues can play a crucial role in fostering a more nuanced understanding of the military and its role in society. Without this foundation, public support for defence initiatives will remain fragile and susceptible to shifting political winds. It requires acknowledging Germany’s historical constraints while articulating a forward-looking vision that resonates with citizens’ values and concerns.

   
   

2. Addressing the Existential Threat: The current threat posed by Russia has catalysed a significant shift in German public opinion. The challenge now lies in maintaining this momentum and translating it into concrete policy changes for long-term security.

   
   This isn’t just about strengthening the Bundeswehr. It requires investing in strategic partnerships, promoting European defence cooperation, and developing a comprehensive approach to security that encompasses military, diplomatic, and economic instruments.

   
   

3. Seizing the Historical Opportunity: The war in Ukraine presents a unique moment for Germany to redefine its role in European security. By framing its support for Ukraine within the broader context of defending European freedom and democratic values, Germany can build on current public support for military action and potentially overcome its historical aversion to security leadership.

Recent political shifts underscore the urgency of this transformation. On 4 March, 2025, the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats announced their plans to reform Germany’s borrowing limit and remove the debt brake for military spending in the coming years, enabling hundreds of billions in investment. This marks a significant shift in Germany’s defence posture, signalling a long-term commitment beyond the initial €100 billion Sondervermögen Bundeswehr in 2022. However, questions remain about how these funds will be allocated and whether they will lead to sustained improvements in defence readiness rather than short-term fixes.

Germany stands at a genuine crossroads, where the choices made today will shape European security for decades. The key challenge now is whether political leaders can translate this momentum into sustainable policy frameworks that endure beyond the immediate crisis and position Germany as a credible security actor within Europe.

Conclusion: A New Chapter in German Defence Policy

As we conclude this three-part exploration of Germany’s evolving defence posture, one thing becomes clear: the fundamental assumptions that have guided German security thinking since World War II are being reexamined in light of new realities. The comfortable “pacifism by default” that Dr. Graf identified in our first instalment has given way to a more nuanced and pragmatic approach to security challenges.

The path forward requires addressing the disconnect between political rhetoric and public understanding, reassessing alliance dependencies in an era of uncertainty, and seizing the historical opportunity presented by the current crisis. Most importantly, it demands translating the current wave of public support for defence initiatives into sustainable policy frameworks that can withstand political changes and shifting public attention.

This transformation requires leveraging current public sentiment to take on more responsibility and rethink the role of European states in NATO. It demands a long-term vision that goes beyond reactive crisis management to establish a durable foundation for European security cooperation.

Thank you for following this series. A special thank you to Dr. Timo Graf, whose insights and research have been instrumental in shaping this discussion and providing a deeper understanding of Germany's evolving defence policy.

Sources and further reading

• Zwischen Kriegsangst & Kriegstauglichkeit

• Ethik & Militär - Suddenly ready for war?

• Survey on military spending & defence topics in Germany

News That Caught Our Attention 👀

• Martin Wolf examines the UK’s commitment to increasing defence spending, arguing that current plans are insufficient given rising security threats. He highlights the risks posed by a retreating US presence in Europe, the strain on NATO, and the economic implications of higher military investment. Financial Times

• Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo reports on NATO’s recent demonstration of unmanned surface vessels in the Baltic Sea, aimed at enhancing surveillance and deterring sabotage against critical undersea infrastructure. Defence News

• Germany's incoming coalition government, led by Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz, plans to boost defence spending and invest €500 billion in infrastructure over the next decade, aiming to modernise the military and revitalise the economy. Deutsche Welle

• Tye Graham and Peter W. Singer report on China’s advances in battlefield automation, highlighting the People's Liberation Army’s recent exercises utilising the Intelligent Precision Strike System. This system autonomously coordinates drone operations, target tracking, and strike execution. Defence One

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European Resilience Tech Newsletter Team

Uwe Horstmann co-founded Project A Ventures in 2012 as General Partner and has built Project A to be a leading European early-stage investor with over $1bn USD under management and having backed 100+ founders. In addition to Project A, Uwe serves as Reserve Officer in the German armed forces and advises the German Ministry of Defence in digital transformation issues.

Jack Wang is a software engineer turned product-driven tech investor and joined Project A in 2021 to lead the firm’s deep tech investing, which has grown to include DefenceTech. Prior to joining Project A, Jack worked in a variety of organisations such as Amazon and Macquarie Group across Australia, US and UK / Europe. Jack holds a MBA from London Business School and Bachelors of Engineering (Bioinformatics, 1st) from UNSW, Australia.

Jannic Meyer joined Project A initially contributing to what is now known as the Project A Studio, partnering with founders at the pre-idea stage, where he covered a variety of topics ranging from energy infrastructure to dual-use robotics and led our investment in ARX Robotics. He is now part of the investment team at Project A covering all things resilience.

Project A Ventures is one of the leading early-stage tech investors in Europe with offices in Berlin and London. In addition to 1 billion USD assets under management, Project A supports its 100+ portfolio companies with a platform team over 140 functional experts in key areas such as software and product development, business intelligence, brand, design, marketing, sales and recruiting. Project A have backed founders of Trade Republic, WorldRemit, Sennder, KRY, Spryker, Catawiki, Unmind and Voi as well as founders building in European Resilience: