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Germany's Zeitenwende: Progress and Challenges in Defense Strategy | EDTH in Copenhagen & Paris
Welcome 🇪🇺
Our Head of Platform and ESG, Paola Compés Tatay, shares key takeaways from a recent American Academy open session titled "Getting the Zeitenwende Right: Military and Society in Modern Germany" - an event we proudly co-sponsored with Sequoia Capital.
The public discussion drew from an exclusive workshop that convened 27 distinguished defense experts from academia, research, journalism, investment, and business. Academy President Daniel Benjamin, alongside Wolfgang Ischinger—retired Ambassador and President of the Munich Security Conference Foundation—and Academy trustee Mara Karlin, led a thorough analysis of Germany's evolving military position. Their discussion explored how the nation is adapting to increasing international pressure to take on a more substantial defense role, both within Europe and globally.
The post has been edited to reflect the recent US elections and the call for elections in Germany.
Yours,
Uwe, Jack and Jannic
​Accelerating European Defense Innovation 🇫🇷/🇩🇰
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Germany's Zeitenwende: Progress and Challenges in Defense Strategy
Olaf Scholz's pivotal Zeitenwende speech in February 2022 marked a turning point for German defense policy. At a time when European security faced new and severe challenges, Scholz boldly announced a €100 billion investment in German defense—an initiative that he reportedly made without consulting close associates in the Bundestag to avoid delaying questions. This decisive action drew widespread praise, with Ischinger grading his vision and courage as a “straight A.”
However, challenges arose with the follow-up. Some in Germany still view the country's support for Ukraine as an act of charity, likening it to past foreign aid initiatives, rather than recognizing it as a vital aspect of European security. The German government must urgently clarify that this support is about safeguarding Europe, Germany’s future, and the NATO alliance.
Further, reflecting on the €100 billion, military officials acknowledge that while it fills some critical gaps, it ultimately falls short of the full need for revamping the German armed forces. The initial funding, although significant, underscores the broader resource demands for transforming European defense capabilities.
From a transatlantic perspective, the shift in NATO’s cohesion is profound. European security and the NATO alliance appear markedly stronger compared to three years ago. While Scholz’s Zeitenwende vision highlighted the need for a new strategic direction, its implementation requires sustained investment and a cultural shift within German society and government.
While Germany’s commitment to NATO’s 2% spending goal is an important milestone, experts caution that current funding levels may soon dip below this threshold again. This risks reinforcing perceptions, especially among U.S. observers like former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, that European allies are not fully invested in their own defense.
As Gates warned in 2011,
“There will be dwindling appetite and patience in the U.S. Congress—and in the American public—to expend increasingly precious funds on behalf of nations that are apparently unwilling to devote the necessary resources or make the necessary changes to be serious and capable partners in their own defense.”
Today, 75% of NATO countries meet their 2% commitment, a substantial improvement from three years ago, reflecting stronger European resolve in the face of shared threats. The new geopolitical context begs the question of its sufficiency.
From Pacifism to Pragmatism: Germany's Evolving Approach to Defense and Support for Ukraine
In the 1990s, Germany adopted what Ischinger described as a “deceptively comfortable worldview,” with the notion that the country was “only surrounded by friends.” This optimistic perspective, rooted in the post-reunification era, led to a diminished focus on military preparedness as Germany assumed that global stability would endure. However, as recent events have shown, “the world is not only full of well-meaning people,” and Germany has been compelled to rethink its defense strategy in response to rising threats.
Today, as global threats escalate, Germany is reassessing its military stance. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius’s candid admission that the Bundeswehr lacks the capacity for national defense highlights an urgent need for stronger capabilities, especially within NATO’s largest European economy.
Yet despite this gap in capabilities and contrary to anecdotal evidence, we have observed public opinion shifting dramatically: over 85% of Germans now support the Bundeswehr — a level nearly double the support rate in the United States. This broad support reveals a paradox. While many Germans back their military, understanding of defense issues remains limited among citizens who lack direct connections to the Bundeswehr. This reflects a lingering societal detachment from military affairs, even as the demand for greater readiness grows.
The analysis highlighted a disconnect between the German public’s evolving perspective on security and the political elite, who are often still influenced by traditional pacifist ideals rooted in Germany’s 20th-century history. While that made great sense after the horrors of World War II, Ischinger emphatically noted that:
“Many of these leaders remain influenced by a classic pacifism… a stance that, while once essential, feels increasingly unrealistic given the current war in Ukraine.”
As Ukrainians fight for survival, Germany’s political debates about military limitations can seem abstract and out of touch with the realities on the ground.
Sustaining support for Ukraine
Karlin noted how perceptions have transformed since February 2022, when few believed Ukraine could withstand Russia’s assault. Yet, thanks to Ukrainian resilience and support from over 50 nations—especially Germany among European allies— Ukraine has not only endured but continued to inspire.
However, the durability of this support is starting to be questioned, as “compassion fatigue” becomes a risk in both Germany and the U.S., where aid to Ukraine has become increasingly politicized all the while the Russian threat remains dynamic, requiring sustained attention and resources.
Karlin argued that Western societies must recognize their agency in shaping future outcomes, poignantly noting, “choosing not to decide is, in itself, a decision.” As Germany navigates its evolving role in European security, bridging the gap between public support and practical military preparedness is essential to meet the challenges ahead.
Some leaders propose a ceasefire as a swift path to ending the war, suggesting that withdrawing support for Ukraine would stop the fighting. However, Ischinger warns that this approach would essentially hand Russia a victory, forcing Ukraine into defeat and sending a dangerous message to other adversarial powers, like Tehran and Beijing. Continuing support for Ukraine, they both argued, increases the likelihood that Moscow will eventually reconsider its aggression and enter meaningful negotiations—strengthening not only Ukraine but also the security of Europe, NATO, and the transatlantic alliance.
Peacetime bureaucracy in wartime
Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz und BM Boris Pistorius im Hubschrauber CH53 2024 | Kugler, Steffen
There is a clear urgent need to overhaul Europe’s defense procurement systems, which remain rooted in peacetime bureaucracy despite the current wartime pressures. “Ukraine urgently requires the latest and most effective technologies,” Karlin noted, emphasizing that the conflict has turned Ukraine into a “laboratory of innovation” in military tech. Yet bureaucratic delays persist, raising doubts about the speed and adaptability of existing processes. While alternative procurement routes are being explored, they often fall short.
The solution, according to experts, lies in expanding partnerships with non-traditional defense contractors and startups, rethinking military objectives, and ensuring proper funding. "Our systems need substantial restructuring to meet the demands of modern warfare," Ischinger stated, stressing the necessity for a decisive shift in mindset.
In Europe, there’s a stark realization that the region’s defense readiness lags behind the urgency of today’s security landscape. European governments have been slow to adapt, largely maintaining a “peacetime mindset.” Meanwhile, demand has surged dramatically; for instance, Rheinmetall’s production of specialized vehicles has jumped from one or two per day to thirty. However, this scale-up requires long-term commitments from governments to assure defense contractors of sustained support.
Looking ahead, Karlin and Ischinger raised concerns about NATO’s future after Donald Trump's re-election, given his scepticism towards European allies and NATO itself. Trump’s alignment with Putin’s perspective on Ukraine further complicates Europe’s position, especially as two-thirds of NATO members now meet the 2% defense spending guideline. With the new election results, Europe, particularly Germany, needs to seriously reassess its role as an independent security leader. Germany’s Zeitenwende — a major policy shift towards defense — was widely praised, but there remains a question of whether Germany is prepared to take on a leadership role or prefers to defer to others. “Effective crisis diplomacy often requires military support,” Ischinger concluded, adding that without adequate military resources, diplomatic efforts alone may fall short of maintaining regional security.
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Uwe Horstmann co-founded Project A Ventures in 2012 as General Partner and has built Project A to be a leading European early-stage investor with over $1bn USD under management and having backed 100+ founders. In addition to Project A, Uwe serves as Reserve Officer in the German armed forces and advises the German Ministry of Defence in digital transformation issues.
Jack Wang is a software engineer turned product-driven tech investor and joined Project A in 2021 to lead the firm’s deep tech investing, which has grown to include DefenceTech. Prior to joining Project A, Jack worked in a variety of organisations such as Amazon and Macquarie Group across Australia, US and UK / Europe. Jack holds a MBA from London Business School and Bachelors of Engineering (Bioinformatics, 1st) from UNSW, Australia.
Jannic Meyer joined Project A initially contributing to what is now known as the Project A Studio, partnering with founders at the pre-idea stage, where he covered a variety of topics ranging from energy infrastructure to dual-use robotics and led our investment in ARX Robotics. He is now part of the investment team at Project A covering all things resilience.
Project A Ventures is one of the leading early-stage tech investors in Europe with offices in Berlin and London. In addition to 1 billion USD assets under management, Project A supports its 100+ portfolio companies with a platform team over 140 functional experts in key areas such as software and product development, business intelligence, brand, design, marketing, sales and recruiting. Project A have backed founders of Trade Republic, WorldRemit, Sennder, KRY, Spryker, Catawiki, Unmind and Voi as well as founders building in European Resilience: