Timo Graf on German Defense Policy & Sentiment

A Conversation around Pacifism, Conflicts & The End of "Checkbook Diplomacy"

AuthorAuthor

Jannic Meyer & Dr. Timo Graf
January 28, 2025

Welcome 🇪🇺

The ongoing transformations in European defense policy have sparked intense discussions about Germany's evolving role on the global stage. To shed light on these developments, we invited Dr. Timo Graf, a researcher with the Bundeswehr and author of the recently published  Zwischen Kriegsangst und Kriegstauglichkeit (available in German), to share his perspectives.

Dr. Graf’s work explores public sentiment toward the Bundeswehr, the impact of the Zeitenwende, and the rising conflicts in Europe from a German perspective. In our discussion, we addressed critical topics, including the public's views on pacifism, Germany's role in global conflicts, and the challenges of shaping future defense policies.

To fully explore these insights, we've structured Dr. Graf's interview into three parts. In this first edition, we examine his surprising findings about German attitudes toward military and civilian engagement, the remarkable shift in public support for defense spending, and the key events that triggered these changes. We invite your thoughts: Has Germany's evolving defense position challenged your assumptions?

Yours,
Uwe, Jack and Jannic

Germany's Zeitenwende: A Pivotal Moment in Defense Strategy

The first time we met Dr. Graf, he presented a graph to a room of 20+ defense professionals that caused a stir. The data revealed that 66% of Germans have a positive attitude towards making use of both military and civilian means in foreign policy vs. 21% advocating only for the use of civilian means and the rejection of military force (see Fig. 1 and 2 below)  - a discovery that left even seasoned experts puzzled. Their surprise highlighted a crucial disconnect between public perception and defense reality in Germany, prompting us to dive deeper into Dr. Graf's research.

Fig.1: Attitude typology based on individual preferences for using civilian and military means in foreign and security policy

Fig. 2: Distribution of four types of foreign and security policy attitudes in the German population, 2016-2023
Note: Not all percentages add up to 100%. Missing values to make 100 percent correspond to the categories “Don’t know” and “No response”.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has fundamentally shifted Europe's security landscape. For Germany, this shift carries particular weight, challenging decades of deeply ingrained post-war pacifism. But Dr. Graf's research reveals a surprising truth: most Germans aren't ideological pacifists. Rather, they've adopted what he calls "pacifism by default" - a comfortable position born from decades of peace. In other words, pacifism is often assumed rather than actively considered in German society. "This isn't a conviction," Dr. Graf explains, "but convenience."

The war in Ukraine has shattered this complacency and has informed shifting support of specific initiatives and measures. Even more telling, this support crosses traditional political divides.

Germany's Defense Revolution: The End of 'Pacifism by Default’ Narrative

The Ukrainian conflict has triggered what Dr. Graf calls 'the great awakening' in German public opinion. Support for military spending and increasing the number of soldiers rose in 2022 from 42% before the invasion to 57% and 58%, respectively, today (see Fig. 3) - the highest level since World War II.  In almost all socio-demographic groups and voting groups, a relative or absolute majority is in favor of strengthening the Bundeswehr financially and in terms of personnel.  This isn't just a statistical shift; it represents a fundamental reimagining of Germany's role in European defense.

Fig. 3: Approval of the increase in defense spending and the number of soldiers in the Bundeswehr 2000-2024
Black: Approval of higher defense budgets
Blue: Approval for an increase of soldier workforce

What's driving this seismic change? Dr. Graf identifies three key factors:

  1. A "Ring of Fire" at Europe's Gates: The warning signs began in 2014 with Russia's annexation of Crimea, followed by the Syrian Civil War and its refugee crisis. These events shattered Germany's post-Cold War sense of security, creating what Dr. Graf calls "a new normal of instability."

  1. Russia: From Partner to Threat: The most dramatic shift came with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. An overwhelming 64% of Germans now view Russia as a direct threat vs. 39% in 2019 (see Fig. 4) - a complete reversal from just a decade ago when most saw Russia as a potential partner. Interestingly, the level of support for increasing military spending is tied to whether Germans see Russia as a direct threat to Germany, while 68% of those who see Russia as a threat support increasing defense spending, only 32% of those who don't see Russia as a threat agree. This suggests that the public’s engagement is heavily influenced by their own sense of security, and perhaps less so on the plight of others.

Fig. 4: Perception of Russia as a threat to Germany's security
Blue: The rearmament of the Russian armed forces is a threat to Germany's security.
Red: Russia's foreign and security policy is a threat to Germany's security.
Black: Russia's military action in Ukraine is a threat to Germany's security.
Grey: Cyber attacks from Russia are a threat to Germany's security.

  1. The End of 'Checkbook Diplomacy': Perhaps most surprisingly, Dr. Graf's research shows Germans increasingly accept military force as a legitimate tool of foreign policy - a radical departure from the post-war consensus. A majority of citizens, between 55% and 87%, believe that the Bundeswehr should be allowed to use military force but only as a last resort to fulfil its fundamental tasks in national and allied defense, as well as international crisis management. A sense of purpose-bound use of force is essential for the German population. In any case, it becomes clear that this isn't just about writing checks anymore; it's about taking an active role in European security.

Surprisingly, while some see China's policies and military expansion as a threat, a significant portion of the population remains undecided about its implications for Germany. This uncertainty is a mirror of the current economic dependencies & relations the German industry maintained over the past decade, which have to be mitigated & navigated in current times. Germany’s strategic documents, including China policy guidelines, represent a mixed message by highlighting China as a strong economic partner, yet a rival in democratic values.

The data is clear and the implications are profound: we're witnessing the emergence of a new German strategic culture, one that could reshape the European security landscape for decades to come.

Sources and further reading

News That Caught Our Attention đź‘€

Every week we feature a list of interesting roles in European DefenceTech start-ups and scale-ups for readers seeking their next challenge in their careers.

If you are a founder and would like to promote your open roles, please get in touch with us!

Passionate and want to contribute? 👩🏻‍💻

The European Resilience Tech Newsletter is always looking for regular and guest authors, writers, reporters, content creators etc. If you like what you read, you are passionate about improving European resilience regardless of your background and want to contribute, just reach out to us!

European Resilience Tech Newsletter Team

Uwe Horstmann co-founded Project A Ventures in 2012 as General Partner and has built Project A to be a leading European early-stage investor with over $1bn USD under management and having backed 100+ founders. In addition to Project A, Uwe serves as Reserve Officer in the German armed forces and advises the German Ministry of Defence in digital transformation issues.

Jack Wang is a software engineer turned product-driven tech investor and joined Project A in 2021 to lead the firm’s deep tech investing, which has grown to include DefenceTech. Prior to joining Project A, Jack worked in a variety of organisations such as Amazon and Macquarie Group across Australia, US and UK / Europe. Jack holds a MBA from London Business School and Bachelors of Engineering (Bioinformatics, 1st) from UNSW, Australia.

Jannic Meyer joined Project A initially contributing to what is now known as the Project A Studio, partnering with founders at the pre-idea stage, where he covered a variety of topics ranging from energy infrastructure to dual-use robotics and led our investment in ARX Robotics. He is now part of the investment team at Project A covering all things resilience.

Project A Ventures is one of the leading early-stage tech investors in Europe with offices in Berlin and London. In addition to 1 billion USD assets under management, Project A supports its 100+ portfolio companies with a platform team over 140 functional experts in key areas such as software and product development, business intelligence, brand, design, marketing, sales and recruiting. Project A have backed founders of Trade Republic, WorldRemit, Sennder, KRY, Spryker, Catawiki, Unmind and Voi as well as founders building in European Resilience: